It was a dry spring and it was rounded out by below normal November rainfall, which was only 71% of the month’s average. The low rainfall was accompanied with impressively hot temperatures, both daytime and overnight temperatures were approximately 3°C above average. It was scorching for the time of year, which doesn’t help the land retain the moisture it has.
River flows were well below average during November and groundwater conditions across the region were also below normal. Soil moisture ended the season near or below average and the Heretaunga Plains remained a particularly dry spot.
The hot November temperatures were stoked by sea surface temperatures that were and continue to be much higher than average. Apart from warming our land temperatures, they also raise the likelihood that storms hitting New Zealand will bring significant amounts of rain. That relies on the storms reaching us though but so far high-pressure systems have been mostly successful fending them off.
That’s likely to be the pattern through early summer but eventually La Niña conditions are expected to become evident as summer progresses. Therefore, the region could expect more northeasterly winds and a few more rain-makers visiting the region. Hopefully not Christmas Day! Overall, summer rainfall is forecast to be near normal and temperatures near or above normal. The La Niña event is expected to wane towards the end of summer, though its influence may linger a bit longer.
