We’re struggling to find middle ground with our rainfall this year. We had three dry months near the start of the year, all receiving about half the monthly average. Now we’ve had a flurry of wet months, with each receiving one and a half times their average rainfall. Both May and June were very wet. We recorded 187% of June rainfall across the region, while some areas, such as the Heretaunga Plains, were hit by more than double their June average.
Soil moisture at most of our sites is near or above median levels for the time of year. Not a bad place to be. Groundwater levels are near average levels for mid-winter, while river flows are higher than average. June temperatures were about 1°C above average during both the day and overnight.
We are in a neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, as a result, the seasonal forecast models are featuring bland and variable predictions of sea level pressure patterns. Near normal pressure over New Zealand seems the main outcome, while lower pressures possibly lie over the Tasman Sea. Winds could be reasonably variable on that basis.
Sea temperatures around our region are near or slightly above normal and warmer than usual through the Tasman Sea and western Pacific Ocean generally. A La Niña could yet develop in spring, but while we are in ENSO “no-man’s land”, our rainfall over the next few months might reach closer to “middle ground” and temperatures hover near or above normal.
All the best,
Kathleen