June was the second consecutive month we’ve had below normal rainfall and roughly 70% of the month’s average. June’s rainfall wasn’t evenly distributed though and both the Heretaunga and Ruataniwha Plains had only about 40% of their average for the month. River flows were lower than normal as a result and groundwater levels in June were near or below normal.
Soil moisture tracked near or above median levels for the time of year across most of the region, apart from sites on the Heretaunga and Ruataniwha Plains and Porangahau, where levels remained stubbornly below normal. Air temperatures were above average, especially during the day, when they were a balmy 1°C warmer for June. Sea surface temperatures have been likewise above average around the coast of the North Island and extending up past Australia to Indonesia.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is wallowing in neutral mode. Neutral mode is a likely contender to win for the rest of the year, La Niña being the main other contender. Seasonal forecast models aren’t entirely in agreement on the outlook for the next three months, but their general picture of sea level pressure has lower than normal pressure extending across from Australia over northern New Zealand, while higher than normal pressure is likely to the south and southeast of the country.
It leaves an easterly component featuring yet again in our winds and increases the chance moisture will come onshore as winds cross the warmer than average seas. On that basis, near or above average rainfall over the period is a reasonable bet, along with near or above average temperatures.
Kind regards,
Kathleen
